Nuclear Dead Pool.com
The goal of this site is to predict the location of the next hostile detonation of a nuclear weapon.
As far as I know, there have been two hostile nuclear weapons detonations so far in human history. These two were both dropped from aircraft by the United States of America during World War II on large cities in the Empire of Japan.
|
City Name (Country Name) |
Date and Time of Detonation |
Explosive Yield |
Number of Dead (blast / overall)
|
Wikipedia Link
|
Notes
|
|
Hiroshima (Japan) |
August 6th, 1945 |
15 Kilotons
|
70,000 / 140,000
|
|
Bomb was named "Little Boy". Enriched Uranium, gun-type trigger.
|
|
Nagasaki (Japan) |
August 9th, 1945 |
21 Kilotons
|
Unknown / 74,000
|
|
Deployed by the United States of America during World War 2.
Bomb was named "Fat Man". Plutonium, implosion trigger.
|
|
????? -- You Guess |
??? |
???? -- You Guess |
|
|
|
The purpose of this page and dead pool is to use what economists call Prediction Markets. These are "speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions".
I have not yet decided on many of the parameters of this dead pool, how it is to be run, what the user interface will be like, etc.
Initial ideas:
- It could be for-profit; I could collect money and if/when there was an event, I would pay the winner the money.
- It could be non-profit: I could collect money and if/when there was an event I would donate the money to the Red Cross in the name of the person who won.
- It could be a mixture of the two: if there was an event, I would give half to the Red Cross and half to the winner.
- I could keep some small percentage of the money as a fee;
- I could take the costs of running the website out of the pot, or I could donate them likewise;
- I could not have money involved and just allow people to guess what they want, as often as they want;
- I could have membership in the site where contact information like name, address, etc., as well as email;
The rules are going to be interesting to determine, too:
- The way to determine the winner, I think, will be who guesses the closest location to ground zero. So, for instance, if person A guesses CityA in CountryA, and person B guesses just countryA, the winner would be person A.
- If two people guess the same city, the person who guesses closer to the yeild wins.
- In case of a tie, winners split the prize (in whatever way there is a "winner" here).